Raj Anand

RBI just hit PAUSE. Repo rate stays at 5.25% - UNCHANGED. 3 numbers that matter: 7.4% → GDP upgraded (was 7.0%) -240 → Sensex reaction (points) April 6-8 → Next meeting Why no cut? Strong growth + Low inflation = No urgency What it means for YOU: → Home loan EMI: No change → FD rates: Stay stable → Bank stocks: Watch Q4 earnings My take: RBI is being smart. After 125 bps of cuts in 2025, they're waiting for more data. If growth slows OR inflation stays low, April might bring another cut. For now? Markets digest, we watch. Are you holding bank stocks or waiting on the sidelines? #RBI #RepoRate #StockMarket #IndianEconomy #Nifty #Sensex #Trading

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It’s interval. Half way mark to 2025! Point to point it looks like a very comfortable 1H. Nifty is up over 7% India 10 year Gsec yield is down over 50 bps INR is at “exactly” the same level versus USD where it was at the start of 2025! But those who have lived through last 6 months in the market would vouch for this: “Statistics hide more than they reveal” It has been amongst the most turbulent times for investors all across the globe. We saw: 1) Massive Tariff war scare 2) Unprecedented decoupling in US$ and stubborn US bond yields 3) Wars: India Pak, Gulf war, continuation of Russia Ukraine 4) Sharp jump in volatility in oil, stocks (vix) and bonds In this period, we saw collosal damage to reputations of experts. The environment was v new and everyone had to eat humble pie as turn of events was way to fast and in the end markets have climbed all walls of worries and standing at new all time highs (ATH) Despite 9 bln $ of net FII selling, Indian equities moved higher led by Largecaps. For me the biggest India positive has been the way Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helped alter narrative around India cyclical growth story. Market looked past earnings downgrades and started to look for better growth starting 2H! So let me summarise the situation and reflect the mood of all stakeholders who are taking sigh of relief as Indian equity market after months of consolidation is now coming back to ATH in line with many other global markets in the form of a song. As always in a lighter vein, a twisted version of an old Jagjit Singh, Asha ji and Lata ji song called jab saamne tum. Here different stakeholders talking about return of bull! “Sceeen dekh ke bole yeh teji wale Ab to be-maut marenge mandi wale Dekhke bull ko hosh mein aana bhool gaye Yaad rahe stocks aur FD karana bhool gaye Jab saamne tum O all time high Jab saamne tum, aa jaate ho Kya jaaniye kya ho jaata hai Tips mil jaata hai, darr kho jaata hai Kya jaaniye sab 🚀ho jaata hai Economists: Chaaha tha yeh kahenge (recession) Socha tha woh (investors) darenge Aaye woh (bull) saamne to, kuchh bhi na keh sake Bas andekha kiye hume sab Informed investors to experts!: Dekh kar tumko yakeen nahi hota hai Koi itna bhi galat hota hai Dekhte hain jo din bhar global news hum toh Views kahin par market kahin hota hai Traders: Jab saamne tum Ho jab saamne ATH tum, aa jaate ho Kya jaaniye kya ho jaata hai X par mtm screenshots mil jaata hai, PE ratio PEG ho jaata hai Kya jaaniye kya 🚀 ho jaata hai Investment bankers: Aa kar chale na jaana, Valuations nahin ghatana De kar DRHP logon ko, term sheet ko mat hilana Dena na beqaraari deadcat bounce ban ke Yaadon mein kho na jaana tum Tariff war ban ke, gulf war ban ke Promoters/Private equity investors: Bhool kar tumko na paar payenge Saath tum doge market mein fir jayenge Ham koi waqt nahin hain hamdam Jab bulaaoge roadshow par chale aayenge Jab sabke saamne tum 🐂 Endnote: Disciplined investing is the key & the focus on asset allocation is must!

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What changed? 🤔 The U.S. has raised the H-1B visa fee from about ₹18,000 ($215) to over ₹80 lakh ($100,000) annually per worker, starting September 21, 2025. This sudden hike leaves little time to adjust, and India—home to the majority of H-1B professionals—is deeply impacted. Possible Upsides for India 1. Better opportunities: Only highly skilled Indians likely to be hired, driving higher pay for top talent. 2. Boost to local industry: Higher U.S. costs may push companies to invest more in India’s tech ecosystem. 3. Market diversification: Firms may expand more into Canada, Europe, and Asia. 4. Stronger voice: Opens doors for India to push this in future trade and diplomatic talks. Downsides to Consider 1. Heavy burden: Smaller IT firms and startups may struggle, risking projects and jobs. 2. Worker uncertainty: Families planning U.S. moves face confusion and delays. 3. Legal limbo: Policy may trigger U.S. court challenges, causing prolonged chaos. 4. Talent shift: Fewer Indians might seek U.S. opportunities, altering career pathways. 5. Mixed signals: U.S. companies may send more work offshore, but that also increases competition within India. ⚖️ Short-term pain, possible long-term gain. No matter the hurdles, #India will continue to rise stronger on the global stage, I'm counting on it!! 💪

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🚀 Nifty at high altitude: 24,750–25,300 is the new battlefield—climb, camp or cash out? India’s bull run just punched in a fresh 25 130 close, yet my quantitative dashboard screams “equilibrium plateau,” not open sky. Price, liquidity, macro and valuation now pull equally—one bullish gust or bearish downdraft could decide the next 500-point sprint. 🔑 Key takeaways • Liquidity – RBI’s surprise 50 bp cut and CRR slash released ₹2.5 lakh-crore; • Macro pulse – GDP 7.4 % YoY, CPI 3.16 % (five-year low), PMI services 58.8. Expansionary mix, yet April IIP slipped to 3.4 %—first hint of capacity stress. • Flows – Two-day FII burst hides a still-negative June tally; DIIs dominate tape. Retail SIPs run near ₹19 K cr/month, cementing an unblinking domestic bid. • Valuation – Trailing P/E 22.5 ×, forward 19.5 ×; equity-risk-premium a skinny 220 bp. Market is priced for perfection, one yield pop away from a 10 % reset. • Derivatives map – 41 % of June OI parked in 25 200–25 300 calls; pins rise at 24 900–25 000. Gamma ceiling above, safety net below. • Cross-asset radar – Brent $67, DXY 105, US 10-yr 4.49 %. Cheaper oil eases CAD but flags global demand; rising dollar crimps FPI appetite. 🛠️ Trading and allocation blueprint • Base case (range 55 %) – Expect noisy drift between 24,750 and 25,300 until Q1 results. Harvest theta: overwrite 25 400 calls against 24 700 puts, own cheap 24 800 protective puts (~0.3 %). • Bull break (25 %) – Clean close >25,300 projects 25,650, maybe 25,900. Add large-cap banks, long metals futures, trail stops at 25,000. • Valuation squeeze (20 %) – US yields to 4.8 % or EPS miss pushes us to 24,300. Raise cash to 10 %, rotate into high-dividend utilities, buy September 24,500 puts. 🧭 Sector moves for June • Overweight FMCG (rural cash + low beta) • Overweight NBFCs & insurers (rate-cut bump) • Overweight pharma (INR drift, FDA flow) • Underweight export metals (tariff risk, strong dollar) ⚠️ Red-flag checklist • US 10-yr >4.8 % → FPI outflow, –650 Nifty pts. • Brent >$80 → imported inflation, –400 pts. • Weak monsoon → food CPI spike, –300 pts. • Earnings wobble –5 % → valuation compression, –450 pts. Positive joker: surprise GST cut or stronger-than-expected bank earnings could add 450 pts in a flash. 🏁 Bottom line Nifty is camped on a mountain ledge: thin air, stunning view, real danger. The blend of 7 % growth, sub-4 % inflation and RBI easing is powerful, but equity-risk-premium under 250 bp and VIX below 15 have historically capped one-month returns near +0.7 % and opened a -5 % left tail. Acclimatise, secure hedges, and wait for the weather: clearer skies (earnings confirmation) or a disciplined retreat to 24,300. Follow Quantace Research Disclosures Prepared by Karthick Jonagadla, Quantace Research & Capital Pvt Ltd (SEBI INH000018258). Views are personal, educational, never investment, legal or tax advice. Disclosure: https://lnkd.in/dhgudec8.

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🔹 The US Chamber of Commerce is fighting tooth-and-nail against Trump’s $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas – a regulatory escalation that, if upheld, would fundamentally alter the economics of skilled immigration and corporate talent acquisition. 🔸 This isn’t just bureaucratic friction. A $100K per-visa fee effectively taxes companies for accessing global talent pools, creating a hidden cost structure that incentivizes offshoring, automation, and reduced hiring of specialized roles that traditionally rely on H-1B sponsorship. 🔹 The stakes are existential for tech, finance, and biotech sectors: If companies must pay $100K+ per H-1B worker, the marginal return on hiring skilled immigrants collapses, forcing consolidation around domestic talent or relocation of operations to more immigration-friendly jurisdictions. 🔸 Market implications cut across multiple dimensions: Tech sector margins compress; startups face higher talent acquisition friction; M&A activity accelerates as larger acquirers consolidate teams; and brain-drain to Canada, UK, and Singapore accelerates. 🔹 The Chamber’s legal strategy is sound: They’re arguing that the fee structure violates existing statute and administrative law – not just that it’s bad policy, giving the appellate court doctrinal grounds to potentially block the fee even if they’re philosophically sympathetic to immigration restrictions. 🔸 Watch the ruling timeline: If upheld, expect immediate corporate litigation and congressional action; if blocked, expect Trump to pursue alternative restrictions through executive authority. Either way, uncertainty around skilled immigration policy will suppress tech hiring and capex through 2026. #Immigration #H1B #TechTalent #CorporatePolicy #Labor #RegulatoryRisk #TechEconomics #CapitalMarkets #HumanCapital #Macro #AlphaBinwaniCapital

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Recently concluded Q4FY25 earnings season was reasonably good with Nifty 500 companies reporting an aggregate net profit growth of 11.9% yoy. However, a deeper look shows that overall earnings were suppressed by lower growth of Nifty 50 companies. Ex-Nifty 50, the Nifty 500 companies reported an aggregate net profit growth of 22.9%. Similar story was seen in operating profit. #DataVsNarrative Data Source : Yes Securities

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Many traders treat NIFTY 50 like a range-bound asset “we’ll buy near support, sell near resistance”. But quants tell a more nuanced tale. * A research paper shows that 5-year and 10-year rolling CAGRs of Nifty display mean-reversion: after multi-year strong expansions the returns compress; after deep drawdowns they rebound.  https://lnkd.in/d3aaaGGK * Another study finds evidence of structural breaks in Indian stock-returns meaning shocks change the underlying behavior, so the “mean” isn’t fixed.  https://lnkd.in/dg4MpivK So if you’re trading Nifty or any asset as if it’s range-bound, you need to be sure: why should it revert? What mean keeps it anchored? What macro-story supports the upper/lower boundaries? Because when the story cracks, the range breaks. The edge lies not merely in recognizing the range but in understanding why prices stay anchored.  What structural drivers create the mean? Are those drivers stable, or are we early in a regime-shift? If you don’t ask, you’re just guessing  #Trading #QuantitativeFinance #MeanReversion #RangeTrading #Markets

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