Millisa Nwokolo

Where is capacity at in the dry van truckload sector, and what impact will the heightened examination of driver qualifications have on capacity? Two charts below inform my answers to these questions. Thoughts: •The top chart answers the capacity question using data from the BLS for payrolls in general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (NAICS 484121). Payrolls as of April 2025 were 520k, which represents a ~30k decline from the late 2022 peak. Interestingly, 550k has been a threshold for payrolls in this sector for the past 35 years, with peaks in early 2000 and 2007 also corresponding to that number. This suggests capacity is around 2019 levels, and likely slightly higher because of a greater presence of nonemployer firms (e.g., for-hire owner-operators). •The bottom chart is from a forthcoming article in Journal of Business Logistics that used data provided by Kevin Hill from his days running CarrierLists where hundreds of trucking companies with 5 – 100 power units were surveyed each week about whether they had started ELD compliance (confidence bands included to show precision of estimates). We only have 70% compliance right before the ELD mandate hits. •What does the bottom chart have to do with driver licensing enforcement? My answer: it provides a sense of the most recent regulatory supply shock versus effects of licensing enforcement. The ELD mandate was a much greater supply shock because a large share of firms, even those with a good number of power units, hadn’t adopted ELDs prior to the mandate’s enforcement. •In contrast, driver licensing issues are likely most serious at small, young carriers that (i) aren’t concerned about compliance in the first place and (ii) experience a low probability of inspection. As such, to expect all these carriers will suddenly clean up their act is naïve and completely contradicts everything we know about misconduct (see https://lnkd.in/gAH8cHVK). Will heightened enforcement cause some carriers to self-select non-compliant drivers off the road? Absolutely. Will all exit? Absolutely not. Implication: every recent strong expansionary pricing cycle in the dry van truckload sector has been driven primarily by sustained increases in demand. While restrictions in supply can compound this, greater enforcement of driver licensing will, by itself, not be enough to shift the dry van TL sector into the type of expansionary pricing cycle we saw in the 2nd half of 2017. #supplychain #freight #trucking #logistics #transportation

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One of my biggest focuses in developing OTR Load Board has been more than just stopping fraudulent activity — it’s been figuring out who is actually behind it. The reality is that most freight fraud isn’t done by “companies.” It’s done by people — the same people who close one MC, open a new one, and repeat the same schemes over and over. Our system doesn’t just catch fraud at the company level. It isolates the actual user behind the fraud, tracks their activity, and ties them to a permanent profile. You can change companies all you want — but if you do something wrong, you’re being watched. When we catch bad actors, they won’t just be banned from OTR — their actions will be reported to regulatory agencies, and their identity and affiliates will be publicly shared. This won’t eliminate freight fraud entirely, but it will make it much harder to get away with it. Fraudsters are getting smarter — but so are we. 2026 will be a turning point. Wrongful actions will be tied to your identity forever. Good luck trying to steal from the hard-working people that keep this industry running — because we will catch you. And when we do, we’ll make sure you can’t keep doing it. #FreightFraud #FreightTech #TruckingIndustry #SupplyChainSecurity #LogisticsInnovation #Transportation #SupplyChainSolutions #LogisticsLeaders #Truckers #FleetManagement #LogisticsTech #StopFreightFraud #BusinessEthics #TrustMatters #PeopleFirst #LogisticsCommunity #FreightBrokers

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As I’m sure there are many questions in the trucking space today about the tariffs on heavy trucks, below are data to help put things in perspective. Thoughts: •The table shows the imports of heavy trucks (NAICS 336120) on a customs value basis in 2024. Mexico was by far the largest source at $15.6 billion (71.9%), with Canada a clear second at $4.5 billion (20.7%). As such, I’m confident these tariffs will override USMCA, just as finished vehicles from Canada and Mexico are now tariffed regardless of USMCA compliance. •The bottom chart shows the share of domestic consumption of heavy trucks that imports represent. This is calculated as imports / (imports + domestic manufacturing – domestic exports), where domestic manufacturing output comes from the M3 Census Bureau data and domestic exports represent the value of US heavy trucks that were exported. Since 2012, that number has consistently been between 35-40% (not sure how this then represents a national security concern if most of our domestic consumption is met with domestic production). •In terms of medium and heavy truck production, production levels in the USA the last few years have been around 330,000 units (see https://lnkd.in/gygFWpPN). Implication: while the BBB bring back 100% bonus depreciation helps trucking companies planning on investing in equipment, these heavy truck tariffs, in conjunction with the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian trailers through the steel and aluminum derivatives, are heavily unwelcome for an industry whose profitability has been poor for the last three years. #supplychain #freight #trucking #truckload #transportation #logistics 

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Your Book of Business Is Not a Hostage Situation -You built the relationships. -You earned the trust. -You moved the freight. So why are you signing contracts that treat your book like it belongs to someone else? Freight agents: your customer list isn’t a bargaining chip. It’s the result of years of work—and you shouldn’t need permission to protect it. 🚩 If your brokerage can terminate you and still keep your book, that’s not a partnership. That’s a hostage situation. 💭 Know your worth. Read your contract. Protect your business. #MindsetMonday #FreightAgentLife #BookControl #ContractClarity #PurpleSquirrelTruth

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A brand owner was venting to me last week about 3PLs and their minimum order requirements. "If a warehouse really had their act together, they wouldn’t need to force brands into $5,000 minimums. A good business should be able to profit whether I ship 50 orders or 500. It's just like restaurants — the best chefs profit on every plate. Only the struggling ones need 'minimum table spends' to survive." To a certain degree, he’s right: Minimums can sometimes expose weak unit economics — the kind where the model only works if brands are subsidizing overhead through volume. But I also shared the other side with him: 3PLs operate high-fixed-cost businesses — rent, staff, software, equipment — expenses that exist whether a brand ships 20 orders or 2,000. If a 3PL doesn’t set a minimum, here’s what happens: They could spend $2,000+ a month just managing a brand's account — while collecting $500 in fees. No business survives that math. A minimum isn’t a penalty. It’s the cost of maintaining a system that works for both sides long-term.

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You can plan the perfect load, pick the perfect carrier, and still end up stuck at the border if the paperwork’s off. Customs clearance isn’t optional. It’s not a “we’ll deal with it later” situation. I’ve seen too many shipments get held up over missing codes or half-filled invoices. I walk through that documentation like it is the load because if it’s wrong, nothing else moves. It’s not glamorous. It’s what keeps freight from falling apart in the final stretch. What’s one thing you wish more brokers warned clients about when it comes to international shipping? #Freight

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Running a freight brokerage will teach you one thing fast... how to have hard conversations when you’d rather avoid them. I once lost my best driver because I waited three days to have a conversation that should’ve taken three minutes. Three days of me saying, “I’ll do it tomorrow.” Three days of him thinking I didn’t care. Three days that cost me a year-long relationship. That’s the part of leadership people don’t talk about: The conversations we avoid don’t disappear. They just cost us people we can’t afford to lose. I wasn’t avoiding conflict because I didn’t care. I avoided it because I didn’t know how to have it. I’d either come in too hot and make it worse— or soften it so much that nothing changed. Either way, people left confused, defensive, or hurt. So I started treating tough conversations like freight itself. You don’t just throw a load on a truck and hope it gets there. You plan the route. You check the payload. You set clear expectations. You deliver it with care, not carelessness. Turns out, communication works the same way. You can’t wing it. You need a framework. Here’s the one we use inside Cowtown now: 1. Prepare with Intention ↳ When emotions run high, clarity drops fast. Pause first. Gather the facts. Set a goal. Calm your emotions, don’t move until the route’s clear. 2. Open the Right Way ↳ How you start determines how it ends. Find common ground: “Hey, I know we both want what’s best for this customer.” Then ask to engage: “Can we talk for a minute?” That small tone shift lowers walls instantly. 3. Share Your Perspective ↳ Facts first. Feelings second. Judgment never. Use this freight-tested flow: Situation → Behavior → Impact. “The delivery was missed (situation). The update wasn’t entered (behavior). It delayed the customer (impact).” Keep it objective, not personal. 4. Listen Like a Leader ↳ This one took me years. Instead of jumping straight to solutions, I ask, “What happened on your end?” Then I actually pause. When people feel heard, the tension fades fast. 5. Find Common Ground ↳ In conflict, alignment is everything. Ask, “What do we both want?” It’s almost always the same answer: serve the customer, protect the team, move freight smoothly. 6. Co-Create Solutions ↳ People back what they help build. Ask, “What would make it easier next time?” Define clear actions and accountability together. 7. Close with Connection ↳ Never end a hard talk cold. Say, “Thanks for being open about it.” Confirm what’s next. Acknowledge the effort. These steps changed how I lead, and how our team works. Drivers feel heard. Customers feel respected. And the team knows communication is safe, not scary. Because at the end of the day, freight moves at the speed of communication. And great leaders don’t avoid hard talks, they master them.

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Key point to note, (and one the FMCSA is trying to fight), is that without accurate reporting correlation does not equal causation. Regardless of the opinion, there is a lack of evidence to support. If I have ever saw a “if the glove don’t fit you must acquit”, it’s hard not to say that this is one of those instances and it’s a reason why there is a stay in place. Data references would be more assumptious versus accurate correlation until a better data set is available.

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I’ve told a few people this week I don’t recommend they be an agent. There maybe an exception or 2, but these are 10 scenarios I would not recommend being an agent. Thought I would share. 1. Truck drivers. It’s best to get experience at a w2 brokerage or for a small trucking company first. 2. People who are not disclipined to work without a boss or from home. No one as an agent is asking you how many calls or hours you worked, and you only get paid what you produced. 3. You don’t really like logistics, you like the water cooler talk. You view logistics more as a “job”. Your 50k plus 4 percent comission pays the bill. Agents are business owners if you don’t enjoy it your going to have a hard time motivating yourself. 4. If you haven’t been in logistics for a year and done at least 10k in GP in self sourced profit in a month. I’m putting that on the low end. 5. You don’t either have customers that will come with you, or months of savings to build up a book again. I’ve seen agents successfully scratch I have one now who is a at 40k GP in 5 months, but the kicker they had built a 100-120k GP book before straight killer. Most start from scratch agents fail. 6. You are extremely negligent or a fraud. If you go to your w2 get drunk at lunch and put a ice cream load on a dry van. You’ll probably just get fired if you do that as an agent the agent program is coming after you. Same goes if you are someone who tries to cheat your w2 by putting rates the customer didn’t agree to. Keep that behavior at a w2 you won’t get sued most likely just fired. 7. You’ve only done carrier sales, account management, or another role in logistics. Get a w2 job first then become an agent. 8. You love your w2, your manager, you think you are fairly compensated, love your co workers culture. My goal is never to take people from good situations. 9. You need constant sales training, or meetings. As an agent you have all the tech, tools, support, but there are no meetings or sales trainings. You need to know how to sell. 10. You aren’t good at relationship building. There are no salaries to fall back on an agent. All this being said, agent path is great for many you get 70 percent of the porfit, paid weekly, no boss or hours, all the tech support and billing done for you. But it’s not for everyone! #agents #logistics #trucking

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