Saumil Agrawal

There are rumors that the next wave of Amazon layoffs will involve the risk management team. It’s interesting because I remember a time when Amazon didn’t even have a dedicated risk management department. The marketplace ran successfully for at least five years without one. So, it’s really more of a policy issue than anything. Those of us who started the appeal business a decade ago will remember there were mainly two types of suspensions: ODR (Order Defect Rate) and LSR (Late Shipment Rate). Now, there are dozens of "violations" they've invented. It’s clear they could easily create a policy to stop suspending for the majority of these so-called violations. On the flip side, it’s frustrating to see how Amazon seems to treat suspensions as a profit opportunity, especially when they hold onto seller funds and inventory indefinitely.

45

4 Comments

I just heard about the layoffs at Amazon. It seems that many of my former colleagues at PXT will be affected. This is obviously a difficult time if you are laid off, but you'll get through it. First steps, without even wasting time, take care of your finances. Cut your discretionary spending (cancel subscriptions, sell your car, don't order takeout or go to restaurants) and tap your emergency fund if needed to ensure you don't find yourself in a worse situation in six months. If you find a job in a couple of months, that's great, but the market is tough right now. Plan for a 6 to 12-month journey. Second, take charge of your professional life. Take a week or two to rest and reset. Go for long walks, meditate, meet with friends, call family, or read a book. Then, focus on learning skills you didn't have time to because you were so busy at work. Goes without saying that learning how to master AI is critical for any future corporate job. Lastly, think about what's next. Job searching requires working your network. It's not enough to apply for jobs online. Find the hiring manager for the position you are seeking and see who you know who can refer you. If you are a software engineer, start a new project to exercise new brain “muscles.” If you are considering founding a startup, thinking about a career pivot, or looking for networking opportunities in Seattle, *send me a message* and I'll help you with what I know. If you prefer, we can schedule a call to chat. You've got this!

70

3 Comments

TL:DR - Where do you think shopping is headed in an AI driven ecosystem? Want to hear your thoughts. --- One of the things I've done with the University of Washington and specifically Shailendra Pratap Jain's class is once a quarter I come and lead a lecture/conversation with his class. The general gist of the lecture is how marketing + retail is evolving digitally. 7, 8, 9 years ago, or whenever the heck I did it first - the conversation was obviously very different than it is now. Now, everyone wants to talk about AI. And I posed a question that I posed here some time ago. On one side of the other room - there is what I call "The Jaded Capitalists". They believe that the ChatGPT, Perplexity of the worlds aren't going to fundamentally alter the shopping experience... we'll just have another huge player in the advertising space - similarly to Google Meta and Apple before them. On the other side of the room - there is what I call "The Agentic Futurists". Shopping will be forever altered. I will have an agent, you will have an agent, and all the brands will have an agents - and we will shop without even being involved as our agentic shoppers curry favors amongst brands and marketplaces to find the best items at the best prices. And I asked these Technical MBA students to pick a side. And a CRAZY thing happened: It was right. down. the middle. About 50% on one side, 50% on the other. I'm going to tag some of the students in this post and would love for them to chime in with their POV - but would love to hear from all of you as well. How is shopping going to change in an AI dominated universe, and why? Rajesh Turlapati Brenton Mizell David Crow Shirin Hallaji Kovid G. Arlo M. Jagadish Kulkarni Thi A. Van Jiaqi Liu Lucy (Melbinger) Grubbe

37

40 Comments

How I Made Decisions at Amazon In 5.5 years at Amazon, I made thousands of decisions. Some were small. Scope tweaks. Deadline shifts. Meeting structure changes. Some were big. Launch calls. Escalations. Resource tradeoffs. Risk acceptance. And here’s what I learned: Indecision is usually more expensive than a wrong decision. Amazon forced me to build a decision framework…not rely on instinct alone. Here’s how I approached it: 1/ I asked: Is this a one-way door or a two-way door? ↳ A one-way door decision is hard to reverse ↳ Long-term architectural changes ↳ Big resourcing bets ↳ Major customer commitments These required deep dive, multiple perspectives, and slower motion. ↳ A two-way door decision is reversible ↳ Pilot launches ↳ Process changes ↳ Messaging experiments These required speed. Most people treat two-way doors like one-way doors. That’s how velocity dies. 2/ I defined the real risk before acting ↳ What’s the worst-case outcome? ↳ How recoverable is it? ↳ What’s the cost of waiting? Often the cost of delay was greater than the cost of being imperfect 3/ I gathered just enough signal…not perfect clarity ↳ 70% confidence was often enough ↳ The remaining 30% came from moving ↳ Over-analysis was a hidden tax on momentum 4/ I wrote my thinking down ↳ Framing the decision in writing exposed weak assumptions ↳ It also made it easier for others to pressure test it ↳ Writing sharpened judgment 5/ I owned the outcome…even when it missed ↳ If a decision didn’t land, I didn’t blame the inputs ↳ I asked: What did I miss? What pattern did I ignore? ↳ Decisions compound…so does accountability The biggest shift Amazon gave me was this: Decisiveness is a leadership trait. But structured decisiveness is a competitive advantage. 📬 I write weekly about clarity, ownership, and high-stakes execution in The Weekly Sync: 👉 https://lnkd.in/e6qAwEFc What’s one decision you’ve been overthinking that might actually be a two-way door?

34

1 Comment