Ryan Schwalbach

Where is capacity at in the dry van truckload sector, and what impact will the heightened examination of driver qualifications have on capacity? Two charts below inform my answers to these questions. Thoughts: •The top chart answers the capacity question using data from the BLS for payrolls in general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (NAICS 484121). Payrolls as of April 2025 were 520k, which represents a ~30k decline from the late 2022 peak. Interestingly, 550k has been a threshold for payrolls in this sector for the past 35 years, with peaks in early 2000 and 2007 also corresponding to that number. This suggests capacity is around 2019 levels, and likely slightly higher because of a greater presence of nonemployer firms (e.g., for-hire owner-operators). •The bottom chart is from a forthcoming article in Journal of Business Logistics that used data provided by Kevin Hill from his days running CarrierLists where hundreds of trucking companies with 5 – 100 power units were surveyed each week about whether they had started ELD compliance (confidence bands included to show precision of estimates). We only have 70% compliance right before the ELD mandate hits. •What does the bottom chart have to do with driver licensing enforcement? My answer: it provides a sense of the most recent regulatory supply shock versus effects of licensing enforcement. The ELD mandate was a much greater supply shock because a large share of firms, even those with a good number of power units, hadn’t adopted ELDs prior to the mandate’s enforcement. •In contrast, driver licensing issues are likely most serious at small, young carriers that (i) aren’t concerned about compliance in the first place and (ii) experience a low probability of inspection. As such, to expect all these carriers will suddenly clean up their act is naïve and completely contradicts everything we know about misconduct (see https://lnkd.in/gAH8cHVK). Will heightened enforcement cause some carriers to self-select non-compliant drivers off the road? Absolutely. Will all exit? Absolutely not. Implication: every recent strong expansionary pricing cycle in the dry van truckload sector has been driven primarily by sustained increases in demand. While restrictions in supply can compound this, greater enforcement of driver licensing will, by itself, not be enough to shift the dry van TL sector into the type of expansionary pricing cycle we saw in the 2nd half of 2017. #supplychain #freight #trucking #logistics #transportation

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Another great 3PL operation capable to do more in the US within Chicago area. Keep in mind that the Open Logistics Network Partners can help you nearly in all geos world-wide. Details below.

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How to Overcome Trucking & Freight Challenges in 2025 A knowledge-focused trucking blog outlining major challenges facing carriers in 2025 — from rate declines and overcapacity to driver retention and operational costs — with actionable strategies for fleets and owner-operators to stay competitive and resilient. #TruckingChallenges #FreightSolutions #TruckFleetManagement #DriverRetention #OperationalEfficiency #FleetSoftware #TruckingTips #OwnerOperator #LogisticsInsights #TransportationIndustry #USAtrucking #CanadaTrucking

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EZDC 3PL Expands Nationwide E-commerce Fulfillment with new Bowling Green, Kentucky Warehouse BOWLING GREEN, KY – September 8, 2025 – EZDC 3PL, a leading third-party logistics (3PL) provider specializing in nationwide fulfillment for growing brands, today announced a major expansion with the opening of its new warehouse facility at 250 Mitch McConnell Way in Bowling Green, Kentucky. This move strengthens the company’s strategic position in the Central Kentucky logistics hub, enabling faster, more efficient, and lower-cost shipping for its direct-to-consumer (DTC) clients across the United States. Known for its boutique and personal approach, EZDC 3PL champions growing brands that ship between 1,000 to 10,000 orders per month. The new facility provides the additional capacity and central location needed to enhance customer satisfaction and reduce operational costs. Strategic Advantages for E-commerce Brands: The new Bowling Green location will serve as a central fulfillment hub, offering clients several key benefits: • Reduced Shipping Costs: A centralized U.S. location allows brands to reach a majority of customers within 1-3 days via ground shipping, minimizing reliance on expensive air freight. • Faster Delivery Times: Quicker shipping leads to higher customer satisfaction, better reviews, and increased loyalty. • Enhanced Scalability: The expanded footprint ensures that as brands grow, their fulfillment operations can scale seamlessly to meet rising demand. “This new warehouse is a testament to our commitment to providing flexible, proactive, and dedicated logistics partnerships for our clients,” said Dave Gulas, President & Co-Founder at EZDC 3PL. “By expanding our footprint in the strategic logistics hub of Kentucky, we are better positioned to help our clients scale their operations with confidence.” With over 40 years of expertise in distribution, EZDC 3PL’s new facility will bolster the company’s full suite of services, including Cross-Docking, Retail Logistics and Warehousing, Omnichannel Fulfillment Solutions, and Packaging and Kitting. The location seamlessly integrates with major e-commerce platforms like Shopify, Amazon, and eBay, allowing brands to expand their reach effortlessly. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/ep7Mf5D8 #warehousing #newwarehouse #logistics #ecommerce #businessexpansion #fulfillment

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Today, RXO, Inc. released our latest Curve report. In the fourth quarter, truckload spot rates continued to rise year-over-year, and the growth rate accelerated from the third quarter of 2025, snapping a three-quarter trend. Spot rates will rise year-over-year and sequentially in the first quarter as carrier capacity tightens relative to shipper demand Carriers have been under tremendous cost pressure from prolonged low rates, causing thousands to leave the market over the past three years. Additionally, over the last few quarters, regulatory changes and enforcement have rapidly accelerated driver attrition, contributing to an increased market imbalance. On the demand side, though both the U.S. consumer and shippers may be hesitant, there are some reasons for optimism including recent industrial production data and government stimulus actions. We’re already in a fragile shipping environment, and any increase in demand will drive rates and volatility even higher. To read the full first-quarter Curve report, visit https://lnkd.in/ef-zFxcA. #RXO #Curve #Brokerage #Transportation #Freight #Logistics #GrowGrowRXO

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We're excited to announce the acquisition of STB Freight Group, a Michigan based provider known for its dependable and customer focused approach to #logistics. “STB’s service driven culture and commitment to transparency are a perfect fit for BlueGrace,” said Bobby Harris, Founder and CEO. “By joining forces, STB customers gain access to our Managed Logistics® platform, providing end to end visibility and optimization across all modes.” This acquisition strengthens BlueGrace’s footprint across North America, giving STB customers access to the full suite of #ManagedLogistics, LTL, TL, refrigerated, and multimodal services supported by advanced technology and data driven optimization. Read the full #pressrelease 📃 https://hubs.li/Q03SC75_0

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The August 2025 Cass Freight Index issued by Cass Information Systems shows that the freight downturn continues, with shipments down 9.3% year-over-year and 1.5% from July. Expenditures also slipped slightly, reflecting the combination of lower overall volumes and a shift in freight mix. Truckload activity provided some growth but declines in less-than-truckload and only modest gains in intermodal and container volumes point to an uneven market. This trend highlights a broader contraction that has persisted since 2023. Even as the average cost per shipment rose 9.8% compared with last year, volumes remain in decline, and the index is on track for another annual drop in 2025. With these pressures carrying forward, the freight market is set to remain strained through the rest of the year. Read the article to learn more about the latest freight shipments and expenditure trends: https://lnkd.in/gSUGAYya #Freight #Logistics #Shipping #SupplyChain #Transportation #Trucking

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Trucking Industry News 🔉 📦 Changes are coming to freight classification — are you ready? The revised system, introduced by the National Motor Freight Traffic Association, marks a major shift toward density-based classification — a move designed to better align shipping costs with actual freight characteristics. 🔍 That means: ✅ Knowing your freight inside and out ✅ Recording accurate weights, dimensions, and density ✅ Preparing for potential inspection surcharges if bills of lading are incomplete At Argus, we’re staying ahead of the curve by helping customers prepare for the transition early. The more detailed your shipment info, the smoother your supply chain runs. Let’s work together to ensure accurate pricing, minimal disruptions, and full compliance by year-end. #ArgusCarriers #FreightClassification #LTLShipping #LogisticsUpdate #NMFC #TruckingIndustry #SupplyChainNews #KnowYourFreight https://lnkd.in/eBMcBvZs

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