Ritwik Mukherjee

FREE READ: U.S. FRAC ACTIVITY HOLDS FIRM AS NEW RUSSIAN SANCTIONS TEST GLOBAL OIL FLOWS U.S. oilfield activity continues to strengthen as October ends. The Frac Spread Count rose to 178, marking another weekly gain and confirming steady momentum through the fall. Key insights 👇 1) Primary Vision - Frac Spread Count and Frac Job Count data reinforces that completions are rising broadly — not just in the Permian, but also across Appalachia and Denver. 2) New U.S. and EU sanctions on Rosneft and LUKOIL add uncertainty but haven’t stopped Russian barrels — flows continue, just at deeper discounts. 3) The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s October 2025 report projects global supply up 3.0 million bpd this year vs 2.7 million bpd earlier, with a 2.35–4.0 million bpd surplus expected through 2026. 4) Even if we don’t fully accept the “glut” narrative, sanctions will make it harder to measure it, obscuring export and inventory data and adding noise to price signals. I wrote about this here for OilPrice.com: https://lnkd.in/dug4z9n8 5) Despite global shifts, U.S. shale remains steady and disciplined, signaling quiet confidence heading into year-end. Explore Primary Vision’s proprietary datasets including the Frac Job Count and NGL Monitor to see what’s really driving the next phase of U.S. supply. Drop me a message or send us an email! #oilprices #oilmarkets #interestrates #fracing #shale #trump #us #china #russia #sanctions #tradewar #demand #supply #commodities

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🔮 TXOGA Quarterly Energy Economics Outlook – Q4 2025 2025 has been a year of noisy headlines, but the data told a very different story. In our new TXOGA Quarterly Energy Economics Perspective, I break down what the signals actually showed across the economy, energy markets, and Texas production--and why reading the fundamentals correctly mattered more this year than at any point since 2020. A few key takeaways that stood out this quarter: 🔹 U.S. consumers powered 90% of GDP growth, but with record debt and rising delinquencies, the margin for error is razor-thin. 🔹 Global oil demand didn’t slow--it was revised upward twice, with a half-million-barrel correction to 2024 alone. 🔹 Texas producers delivered more oil and gas with 20% fewer rigs, posting double-digit productivity gains in the Permian. 🔹 On current trends, the U.S. is on track to surpass Russia as the world’s largest total natural-gas exporter, with LNG growth and Texas pipeline projects reinforcing America’s rising global position. Those are only the clearest signals. Underneath them is a bigger story: 2025 rewarded accuracy over sentiment. Despite volatile markets and shifting forecasts, the fundamentals kept pointing in one direction. And Texas remained the stabilizing force. If you're following energy markets, global trade, or the U.S. economic outlook heading into 2026, this quarter’s analysis offers a clear and data-driven view of what really happened--and what matters most next. 👉 https://lnkd.in/gB8aVR8q #OilAndGas #LNG #EnergyMarkets #NaturalGas #Productivity #BigIdeas2026

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An example of why “analysts” predicting the inevitable decline of shale have systemically underestimated continuing productivity improvements. Do not bet against the completion minds in the field.

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In a world where every dollar of operating cost or downtime compounds across hundreds of wells, even a small improvement in production efficiency or estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) can shift portfolio economics dramatically. (Sponsored Content by NTT Data)

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U.S. gas prompt month (April) back around ~$3.03/dth yesterday and most of the forward curve in red territory, the market appears to be trending lower. Structurally, the current setup suggests a bearish tilt but is it really sentiment, or simply strong fundamentals at play? Drivers that help explain the current price action: 1. Production: U.S. natural gas production continues to hover around ~110 Bcf/d, sitting near record highs. With a clear policy push supporting domestic energy production, supply remains abundant and continues to weigh on prices. 2. Storage: Below-average withdrawal (38 Bcf) reported in the latest EIA report, leaving inventories at ~8% higher than same time last year and almost at parity with 5-yr avg. The anticipation of a possible injection this week further alleviates near-term supply concerns. 3. Demand: Outside of the recent cold spell this week, natural gas demand across much of the U.S. has remained subdued, limiting upward pressure on prices. 4. LNG exports: U.S. LNG demand continues to strengthen as international spreads widen, supporting export economics. Most export terminals are currently operating near peak capacity (except Freeport which was seen down this week), making LNG demand the primary bullish driver in the market right now. Overall, near-term price action may remain choppy given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, but until weather or storage shifts materially, the prompt appears biased toward consolidation presenting opportunities. For long-term outlook, prolonged closure of the Strait and Qatari LNG could lead to reduced pace of injections through summer, in turn increasing the pressure on winter strip (also bearing in mind potential increase in capacity with upcoming GP LNG terminal).

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ConocoPhillips is working with advisers on potential asset sales in the Eagle Ford Shale and Permian Basin, part of a broader portfolio review.

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Scale continues to drive capital efficiency in oil & gas. In Q1 2025, large-cap producers generated 2× more free cash flow per BOE than mid-cap peers. Permian pure-plays, led by Diamondback Energy and Permian Resources, topped the list at $20+ per BOE Download our latest report, “Peer Group Free Cash Flow Per BOE“. Now available for Novi Intelligence subscribers (Link in the comments) 

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Oil and gas investment firm Rising Phoenix Capital has acquired mineral interests in Ector and Midland Counties, TX, operated by ConocoPhillips, as part of a strategy to expand its position in the Midland basin. Read more: https://ow.ly/aFPJ50VMY79

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