Transportation Planning 101
Personal mass transit (PMT) will solve congestion? News to me. If mass transit can’t solve congestion, how could PMT ever possibly solve congestion? In the San Francisco Bay Area, mass transit comprises less than 5% of all trips. Mass transit hasn’t “solved” congestion. PMT, if it is ever deployed, will capture a very tiny fraction of that 5 percent. In fact, some projects, like AC Transit’s Tempo BRT, created more congestion. Did I lose you? Hang on please. I know perfectly well that it’s not PC to say that, even if it’s true.
Yes, by reducing International Boulevard from two to one lane in each direction, Tempo exacerbated traffic congestion, even during non-peak hours. But there’s not anything necessarily wrong with that. It was all part of the plan. Make it so buses run fast faster than cars, and people will ride the bus. Either that or drivers will avoid using International Boulevard because they know it’s congested. But they’ll still be in their cars.
Now for the truth: PMT will not solve congestion. The truth is that congestion, I mean, really really bad congestion, will be PMT’s best friend. Yes, my dear colleagues, transit, whether it’s mass transit or PMT, thrives on bad congestion. BRT, with its dedicated bus only lanes adores congestion. PMT, with its separate, dedicated right-of-way, will do very well if the surface streets and freeways are completely down sized, shut down, and totally jammed up.
Other friends of transit are very high parking cost, and exorbitant tolls.
Conclusion: PMT will not solve congestion. PMT will need congestion, super-bad congestion, oh yes, and super high parking cost, and super high tolls, to attract riders. Otherwise, why would any reasonable person ever decide to use it?
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