Herbert Blank

Inside Stipelis: A Framework for Trading the Capital Markets with an Eye on Preservation of Capital. Pulling back the curtain—without giving away the code—is a balancing act. At Stipelis Global Trading LLC, we focus on what we can share: how we think about markets, even when we can’t show you the signals. Our short-term trading program targets the most visible and liquid contracts on U.S. exchanges. From E-mini equity indices to currency futures, to treasuries, energy, and agricultural products... we look for conditions that favor tactical positioning—always within a framework that emphasizes capital preservation and disciplined risk. We’re not here to chase every move. We’ll pass on trades if the structure doesn’t line up. The markets we trade are varied—S&P minis, crude, gold, corn, Euro FX—but what matters is how they behave under stress, during catalyst windows, or when volatility shifts. Holding periods range from minutes to weeks, and yes, we’ll hold spreads overnight when it fits. Our edge isn’t based on speed or secrecy. It’s about preparation, execution, and having the discretion to sit out when necessary. We don’t trade retail forex, forwards, or EFPs, and every market in our portfolio must meet liquidity and volatility criteria. For example, we may stand down in certain commodities—not because there’s no opportunity, but because the asymmetry doesn’t meet our standards. Risk management isn’t a feature of our program—it is the program. We use discretionary overlays to size positions based on market conditions and account size, not on gut feeling. Drawdowns happen. Volatility is part of the game. But we believe a well-structured strategy—executed with consistency—can weather those cycles. Every client grants us discretionary authority, and we view that trust as a long-term commitment. That’s why we ask investors to give the strategy three years—not three months—to play out. We don’t aim for daily fireworks; we aim for long-term capital appreciation through disciplined execution in complex, liquid markets. Want to know more about how we think about FX around central bank surprises or equity vol around earnings clusters? Follow us. We’ll keep sharing what we can—and stay focused on executing what we must. For a more detailed description of our trading program, visit stipelis.com. Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID Number 0474441     THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.     #stipelis #marketupdate #crudeoil #USDollar #gold #copper #stockmarket

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EXCERPTS: Satellite Chemical, China's largest importer of U.S. ethane, has paused plans to build its third ethylene unit amid protracted U.S.-China trade tensions and a lack of required government and regulatory approvals. The new cracker, costing roughly $1 B and with a capacity of up to 1.5 metric MMtpy would process ethane into ethylene, a key petrochemicals building block. It is part of the company's multibillion-dollar phase 3 expansion in Lianyungang, a city in eastern China. China buys half of U.S. ethane exports and secures nearly all of its ethane imports from the U.S. The delay demonstrates the potential pitfalls of the country's growing reliance on U.S. ethane. Satellite was about to start construction of the new cracker after almost completing construction of at least one petrochemical derivative unit in Lianyungang in the second quarter. However, the company was ordered by the central government to halt construction as Beijing was worried that rising demand for U.S. ethane could hand Washington additional leverage amid trade tensions. Satellite may have to wait until U.S.-China trade relations stabilize to resume building the third cracker, which would delay the entire phase 3 expansion that had been slated for start-up in the first half of 2027. Satellite is expected to proceed with several downstream projects, such as alpha-olefin and polyolefin elastomer (POE) units that make high-performance plastics used in automobiles, and packaging. Key units under the phase 3 project include two 500,000-tpy polyethylene units, five 100,000-tpy alpha-olefin units and three 200,000 tpy of POE facilities. Satellite was one of the earliest Chinese companies to process abundant and cheap U.S. ethane - a byproduct of natural gas production - into ethylene. It operates two such crackers capable of producing 2.5 MMtpy of ethylene combined, making it the world's largest single importer of U.S. ethane. Compared with oil-based technology, ethane is more cost-efficient and lower in emissions. To secure feedstock, Satellite invested in a 180,000-bpd terminal in Nederland, Texas (U.S.), in a joint venture with U.S. firm Energy Transfer in 2018. Satellite and Energy Transfer also agreed a supply deal with annual shipments of over 3 MMt of U.S. ethane that lasts through 2030. https://lnkd.in/g8KucQYb

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US Treasury unveils plan to end production of penny coin The U.S. Treasury Department has announced plans to cease production and circulation of the penny by early 2026, marking the end of over 200 years of use of America’s lowest-denomination coin. This decision is driven by rising production costs, which now approach nearly 4 cents per penny a 20% increase in 2024 alone resulting in an annual loss of approximately $56 million. Once production halts, cash transactions will be rounded to the nearest five cents, though non-cash payments will maintain exact pricing. This move aligns the U.S. with countries like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, which have already phased out their one-cent coins. While the penny holds cultural significance, the economic inefficiency of its production has led to bipartisan support for its discontinuation. What are your thoughts? #EconomicTrends #USMint #PublicPolicy #CostCutting #FinancialEfficiency #Innovation #Government #MarketInsights #PennyPhaseout

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Population Decline Is a Feature Not a Bug or National Failure — But China and the West Are Responding Very Differently Collapsing birth rates are increasingly framed in the West as evidence of national failure. China’s demographic slowdown, aided by dire predictions of people such as Peter Zeihan, is often cited as proof that its system is “breaking.” Both interpretations miss the bigger picture. Population decline is not primarily a political failure. It is a feature of modernization itself — and the real divergence between China and the West lies not in demographics, but in how each is adapting to a post-demographic-growth world. Every advanced economy experiences falling fertility. The data is unambiguous. • China’s total fertility rate is now ~1.0–1.1 • South Korea’s is ~0.7 (the lowest ever recorded) • The EU averages ~1.4 • The U.S. sits around ~1.6, well below replacement This is not a China problem. It is a developed-world condition. The modern nation-state — East or West — was built on assumptions of population growth, expanding labor forces, and territorially anchored production. Those assumptions powered industrial-era prosperity. They are steadily losing relevance in a networked, automated, AI-driven economy. Here is where the divergence appears. China increasingly treats demographic slowdown as a constraint to be engineered around, not a civilizational failure to be reversed. Policy emphasis has shifted toward automation, AI, industrial upgrading, and productivity per worker. China already deploys more industrial robots annually than the rest of the world combined, and its manufacturing strategy explicitly assumes long-term labor scarcity. In contrast, much of the Western debate remains stuck in a moral and nationalistic frame: Why aren’t people having children? Which policies failed? Who is to blame? That framing is backward. Population decline is not a bug. It is a signal that human organization is evolving away from models that require constant demographic expansion. Technology changes the math. AI, automation, and digital networks reduce dependence on raw population scale. Economic value increasingly comes from coordination, intelligence, and systems integration — not headcount. This is also why corporations and large organizations increasingly gain influence across both China and the West. Modern corporations are non-localized systems. They organize capital, talent, data, and production across borders. They are modular, scalable, and increasingly AI-augmented. In a world where work and value creation are less tied to geography, these structures are simply better aligned with reality. Corporations did not cause demographic decline — but they are structurally advantaged by it. 1/2 (continued in comments)

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This paper introduces Direct Fractional Auction (DFA), a novel auction mechanism for allocating fractional ownership of an indivisible asset among unaffiliated bidders. DFA is designed to address limitations of conventional winner-takes-all auctions and over-the-counter fractional trading by enabling collective ownership while preserving meaningful property rights and open market price discovery. Bidders submit all-or-nothing offers specifying both the quantity of fractional shares demanded and the total price they are willing to pay, and the auctioneer selects the combination of bids that maximizes seller revenue subject to a fixed supply constraint. The resulting allocation problem is formulated as a constrained integer optimization problem closely related to the 0–1 knapsack problem. We develop a dynamic programming solution that guarantees revenue maximization and introduces a lexicographic tie-breaking rule based on bid arrival times to ensure a unique equilibrium outcome. We show that the DFA mechanism strictly dominates the standard greedy allocation rule in terms of seller revenue and discuss how data-pruning techniques reduce computational complexity in large auctions. From an economic perspective, DFA expands participation, improves price discovery for high-value and thinly traded assets, and unifies single-winner, multi-unit, and fractional ownership auctions within a single market-design framework. https://lnkd.in/gfuND_ea

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#Antimony may be one of the most critical metal investors still underestimate - yet without it, modern defense systems and key industrial applications simply don’t function. As global supply tightens and Western dependence becomes a strategic vulnerability, high-grade projects in stable jurisdictions are moving from niche to necessity. The real opportunity lies not in what the market already understands, but in what it has yet to fully price in. The interview of Lyndsay Malchuk with Jim Atkinson, CEO of Antimony Resources Corp. (CSE: ATMY | FSE: K8J0 | OTCQB: ATMYF) covers it all!

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At Trepp, Inc. this week we watched the Fed cut rates by 25bps but stop short of committing to a December move. I see the uncertainty tied to two deeper dynamics: 1️⃣ Which offers a better read on future economic conditions—spending resilience or labor cooling? Spending says wait. Labor says cut. Further complicating the picture, AI is primed to deliver both productivity gains and labor market disruptions. 2️⃣ How persistent will tariff inflation prove? If it’s sticky, they hold off. The standard macro playbook says it should be transitory. But post-pandemic inflation surprised many with its stickiness—revealing how messy and slow real-world price adjustments can be. 🏢 Meanwhile, CRE is pushing forward. CMBS issuance is nearing its highest level since 2007. Spreads in new issuance and secondary markets have tightened. https://lnkd.in/e3Znmx3D #FOMC #Markets #Inflation #LaborMarket #CommercialRealEstate #FederalReserve

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China, Peter Zeihan, and misaligned incentives causing problems A short talk about why China’s real issue is misaligned incentives, and that is isn’t a China specific issue, it’s worldwide. #china #peterzeihan #economy #wealth #geopolitics https://lnkd.in/gQHsKHzg

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