SeQuant Capital LLC

Will AI Agents Replace Travel Platforms — or Depend on Them? When I travel, I’ve tried many services for hotel bookings, but Booking is still near the top of my list. Recently, it also got on my investment watchlist after a sharp sell-off across travel platforms in February amid growing fears that AI agents could eventually plan trips themselves, potentially reducing the need to visit travel websites directly. One of the pieces discussing this scenario came from Citrini Research. In February, major travel platforms dropped more than 30%: • Booking Holdings • Expedia Group • Tripadvisor However, companies like Booking are not just trip planners — they are a global marketplace infrastructure connecting travelers with 31M+ properties, while handling pricing, availability, payments, cancellations, and disputes. Interestingly, Booking has negative shareholder equity, which would normally be a red flag. In this case, it is largely the result of strong cash generation combined with aggressive share buybacks and dividend payments, rather than operational weakness. In my view, whether demand is generated by humans or future AI agents, the underlying marketplace infrastructure will likely remain essential. Curious to hear your thoughts: Which services do you use for travel planning and especially hotel bookings? And what do you think about the future of travel AI agents? 🤖 #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Investing #StockMarket #Booking #Citrini

Everyone is talking about AI taking jobs. I want to talk about something bigger. There is a $10 billion industry whose entire revenue base depends on a single input: human beings crashing cars. Companies in the industry have built brilliant, durable businesses around this. 40-42% EBITDA margins. $1B-$5B net cash to $10B revenue industry. ROIC above 25%. In a normal world, you'd own these stocks forever. But here's the thesis no one is pricing: 94% of all traffic accidents are caused by human error. (Source: US Department of Transportation) Waymo just published data from 100 million driverless miles. Their vehicles had 91% fewer serious crashes than human drivers… on the same roads, in the same conditions. The EU has a legally binding target of zero road deaths by 2050. Sweden is already at 20 fatalities per million inhabitants and falling. When the accident rate goes to zero, the salvage auction industry doesn't pivot. It disappears. You cannot retrain an industry whose product is the wreckage of a behavior that technology is eliminating at the root. I mean, okay, these companies have a lot of land... but what do they do with it? Run festivals like Burning Man? That’s an open question. What makes this particularly interesting right now: ADAS is simultaneously suppressing accident frequency and inflating total-loss rates because modern sensor suites make even minor collisions uneconomic to repair. This is creating a short-term earnings tailwind for companies that mask the structural problem entirely. The market is pricing 2026. We're pricing 2035. But the bigger question isn't about $CPRT or $RBA. It's about which other industries are built on human error rates that are quietly approaching zero. Traffic lawyers. Collision repair shops. Personal auto insurance. Urban parking structures… . AI doesn't just automate tasks. In some cases, it automates away the entire reason an industry exists. Three things I'd love to hear from you: 1. Which industry disappearing surprises you most? 2. Do you think CPRT's land assets (20,000 acres) become the pivot? 3. Am I wrong on the timeline or too fast or too slow? Drop a comment. Let's debate it. #structuraldisruption #AIresearch #fintech #vc #stockmarket #disruption #futureofmobility #quantfinance #wallstreet #markets #technologicalchange

Bitcoin vs S&P 500 — Divergence with Rising Sensitivity Recent market dynamics show a notable divergence: while the S&P 500 remains near highs, Bitcoin has corrected sharply (~50%). However, underlying metrics tell a more nuanced story: • Correlation is rising, not falling — BTC is increasingly trading in line with macro risk sentiment. • Beta remains elevated — Bitcoin continues to react to market moves with amplified magnitude. Price divergence does not necessarily imply regime decoupling. Current statistics suggest Bitcoin remains embedded within the global risk complex. Always monitor underlying risk metrics — and adjust positioning accordingly.